Profit to date (Jun–Sep)
−£8.2k
Break-even revenue a month, from November
£15.2k
Revenue a month so far (Jul–Sep)
£7.8k
Spain revenue a month (£k): actual, Doug's forecast, proposed FY27 target, against break-even
ActualModel forecastProposed targetBreak-evenIf he becomes a Spanish employee
Cumulative profit on Spain since June (£k), on the proposed target
Data table and assumptions
Spain keeps 60p in the £1: 30% to the referring agent, ~10% to Tom (his actual rate; the model uses 12.5%). Cost from November: pay £7.4k + Spanish employment agency £1.2k + travel and events £0.5k = £9.1k a month, so break-even is £15.2k. If he becomes a Spanish employee, add ~£1.3k a month of employer social security (my estimate), so break-even is £17.3k (the shaded band). Before November: pay £5.45k, so break-even is £9.1k.
The call: FY27 target £201k (Q1 £13k a month, rising to £20.5k in Q4). Floor: break-even by Q2. The £308k in Doug's model (from Paul's doc) is the stretch. On this target Spain only pays back its start-up loss in December 2027, with the worst point about −£14k in March.
Targets for Tom
- Revenue: £13k a month in Q1, £15.5k in Q2, £18k in Q3, £20.5k in Q4 (£201k)
- Floor: at least £15.2k a month from Q2 (break-even)
- About 40 agents producing each month by June. Today: 27 signed, 12 clients trading, about £380 per agent a month
- Agents live on Callum once Meta approves (day 9 of 20)
Decide or fix
- Spanish employment agency in November: yes or no? It's £1.2k a month plus about £1.3k of employer costs
- Agent fee 30% → 25% for top agents: +£10k on £201k
- Second hire only after 3 months at £25k a month or more
- Book agent fees under Spain, not UK Inbound
Owner: Tom C (target), Paul (Spanish IBAN, agency) · Review: monthly, first gate end of March 2027
Net profit (£k) by scenario, after the fee and the Xero feed
Year oneThree years
Data table
From the 2 Oct memo: mean revenue per client by Wow's bands, 30% to Wow netted against the £25k fee, and three-year revenue at 1.9× year one. Xero is £6k a year, counted in full against Wow. At median rather than mean revenue per client, the base case is about −£2k in year one.
Year-one break-even (revenue)
£32k
Trading agencies to wash its face
3–6
Hit to FY26 if it starts in November
~£5k
Washing its face: £31k of cost (fee + Xero) needs ~£32k of revenue. That's 3 agencies moving over £1m at our average, 5 at our median, or ~6 at a realistic mix. That means ~17 sign-ups or ~19 calls at our introducer conversion rate. Agencies join through the year, so allow ~18 months for those six to cover it.
Targets
- At least 25 introductions in 12 months, 15 or more from the 53 agencies over £1m
- Month 3 gate: 8 introductions and 4 calls, or the year rolls over free
- 3 trading by month 6, 8 by month 12
- Xero feed: at least 20 clients connected (my proposal)
Before signing
- Get the test introductions first (Mark's condition)
- Pricing: anchor near Wise for these clients rather than at 0.18–0.28%?
- Confirm we can offer collection accounts in the client's own name on day one
Owner: Mark, Paul, Marcus (deal), Tom R (onboarding) · Cash: £13k upfront
FY27 profit against the draft, by Outbound revenue a month (gross)
Data table
Each £10k a month changes FY27 profit by about £53k (×12 months × 0.96 × 46% kept after Nico's 48.5% and 5.5% affiliates).
If Nico leaves (model)
−£233k
Successor head, loaded
£62k
Each point of Nico's commission
£9.8k
Targets
- At least £85k a month gross from January, £100k by Q2
- Bridgeway (Driftwood) back to its 2025 run-rate, ~£28k a month. That alone is most of the £100k. It's one client, so count it once
Decide
- Successor: insurance (a cost) or a revenue role (needs ~£135k)?
- Commission structure: when, if ever, to reopen it
Owner: Stevan, with Mark · Review: end of October
Now (filled) against the FY27 target (marker)
Data table
CT database: client-to-client referral revenue £27k (2021) → £215k (2023) → £494k (2025). Lapsed means revenue in 2024–25 and no trade in 2026: 1,648 clients worth £409k in 2025. In 2025 only 5% of that group came back on their own. KSA: 81% of 2024 clients traded again in 2025.
Profit if all targets are hit
+£119k
Extra referral budget
£12k
Saudi trips already budgeted
£24k
KPIs for Saul
- Client-referral revenue £494k → £590k (+£95k)
- Lapsed clients reactivated 5% → 15%, about 250 clients (+£40k)
- KSA year-on-year retention 81% → 85%
- Activity: referral asks and lapsed contacts each month
For onboarding (Sara H, Tom R)
- Our clock (complete documents → decision) and the client chase (WhatsApp within 24 hours); providers' time goes to Paul
- Share of signups that make a first trade
- KSA rate test on lapsed clients: rates are the complaint
Saudi trips: FY27 already has £24k (£2k a month), but FY26 had the same budget and only ~£0.5k was booked to Saudi travel. Earmark it as named trips rather than a monthly drip: 4 quarterly two-person visits (~£4k each) to top KSA clients, plus ~£8k for a client and referral evening. Each trip's report is lapsed clients visited, referrals asked, trades won back.
Owner: Saul · Budget: referral scheme £18k → £30k; Saudi trips £24k (in the draft)
FY27 profit by option (£k)
Data table
Salaried manager: £20–50k revenue (research estimate) at 70% kept after a 30% agent fee, against £60–90k loaded cost. The UAE hire (Mar–Jun 2026): pay £15.9k + recruitment £17.1k, against £644 of revenue from 3 trading clients; −£51k if the UAE visa, travel and laptop costs were his.
The call: no Dubai revenue in the Plan; anything that lands is upside. You open doors, with no number on your back. What you do own is a decision by mid-2027 on whether to hire, backed by the milestones below. Those are things to find out, not sales targets. Any partner firm you meet goes through the partner programme (contract, onboarding, portal, payouts); your part is the first conversation.
Milestones by end of Q1
- 2–3 escrow banks or developers confirm they'll accept our payments
- 3–5 commission-only partner firms signed (brokers, relocation and set-up firms), not individuals
- One UK-facing developer sales office talking to us
Paul's workstream
- AED collection for UAE residents and set-up clients: Corpay, Nium, Hubpay (3–6 months)
- Hire decision mid-2027, only if the partner firms produce funded clients
Owner: Stevan (doors, no target) · Paul (escrow check, AED provider)
New UK corporate first traders a year
Data table
Who owns which step
- Introductions (16): Wow 6 (Mark/Paul); Marcus's network 6 (Imran, Nathan, David Morley), which also justifies his retainer at ~4; Ingrid 4, with her plan due 23 Oct (target first, strategy owed)
- Closing: Tom R converts at least 35% of UK businesses introduced by Wow and Marcus's network
- Speed, on three clocks: ours (complete documents → decision) and the client chase belong to Tom R and Sara H. The chase is WhatsApp by default: the list of missing documents and an upload link the same day, 3 nudges in 7 days, then a call. Providers' approval time and one-flow onboarding belong to Paul
- Capability: Paul's dated backlog (card 09)
Decide
- Trigger for a closer: if conversion from introduction to trade is under ~35% by mid-year, consider a commission-heavy closer
- Funnel review now: where corporates drop off (signup → checks → approval → first trade), time at each step, and Pipedrive loss reasons
Owners: Tom R (conversion, speed), Paul (capability), channel owners (introductions) · Review: monthly
R&D tax refund to plan on
£0
Standing backlog, by person
- Kamen, Toma: the Xero feed; the CT App sending account needs and lost-deal reasons to Compass (card 09); a partner data API so the partner app can drop its mock data
- Deyan: partnerable items T-05, portal iteration (resources, banks vs Corpay vs CT, videos), and T-01, corridor rules in the web payment flow. The apps already have the purpose-of-payment step
- Ivaylo, Bojan: finish the partner app started in July (iOS dashboard on mock data, Android at setup). The first version does three things: push alerts when a referral signs up, trades or earns; share the referral link to WhatsApp in one tap; show live earnings and payout status. Pilot it with Tom C's Spanish agents and Marcus's connectors
- You: Callum. The partner portal is already live (built with AI)
Decide
- Partner app bar: at least 15 partners using it monthly, 3 months after launch; otherwise park it
- The real constraint is deciding and designing the work (you and Phil), not developer time
- A quarterly roadmap with named deliverables tied to cards 01–09
- Don't count on R&D refunds: the work is overseas
Owner: Stevan, Kamen
Owner: Doug · Due: FY26 v4 by 15 Oct
Owner: Paul (go-lives, and a log of what's asked of him), Kamen and Toma (fixing the log) · Source: Compass production, read-only, 10 Oct 2026