Profit to date (Jun–Sep)
−£8.2k
Break-even revenue a month, from November
£15.2k
Revenue a month so far (Jul–Sep)
£7.8k
Spain revenue a month (£k): actual, Doug's forecast, proposed FY27 target, against break-even
ActualModel forecastProposed targetBreak-evenIf he becomes a Spanish employee
Cumulative profit on Spain since June (£k), on the proposed target
Data table and assumptions
Spain keeps 60p in the £1: 30% to the referring agent, ~10% to Tom (his actual rate; the model uses 12.5%). Cost from November: pay £7.4k + Spanish employment agency £1.2k + travel and events £0.5k = £9.1k a month, so break-even is £15.2k. If he becomes a Spanish employee, add ~£1.3k a month of employer social security (my estimate), so break-even is £17.3k (the shaded band). Before November: pay £5.45k, so break-even is £9.1k.
The call: FY27 target £201k (Q1 £13k a month, rising to £20.5k in Q4). Floor: break-even by Q2. The £308k in Doug's model (from Paul's doc) is the stretch. On this target Spain only pays back its start-up loss in December 2027, with the worst point about −£14k in March.
Targets for Tom
- Revenue: £13k a month in Q1, £15.5k in Q2, £18k in Q3, £20.5k in Q4 (£201k)
- Floor: at least £15.2k a month from Q2 (break-even)
- About 40 agents producing each month by June. Today: 27 signed, 12 clients trading, about £380 per agent a month
- Agents live on Callum once Meta approves (day 9 of 20)
Decide or fix
- Spanish employment agency in November: yes or no? It's £1.2k a month plus about £1.3k of employer costs
- Agent fee 30% → 25% for top agents: +£10k on £201k
- Second hire only after 3 months at £25k a month or more
- Book agent fees under Spain, not UK Inbound
Owner: Tom C (target), Paul (Spanish IBAN, agency) · Review: monthly, first gate end of March 2027
Net profit (£k) by scenario, after the fee and the Xero feed
Year oneThree years
Data table
From the 2 Oct memo: mean revenue per client by Wow's bands, 30% to Wow netted against the £25k fee, and three-year revenue at 1.9× year one. Xero is £6k a year, counted in full against Wow. At median rather than mean revenue per client, the base case is about −£2k in year one.
Clients that takes (base mix)
~6
Hit to FY26 if it starts in November
~£5k
Targets
- At least 25 introductions in 12 months, 15 or more from the 53 agencies over £1m
- Month 3 gate: 8 introductions and 4 calls, or the year rolls over free
- 3 trading by month 6, 8 by month 12
- Xero feed: at least 20 clients connected (my proposal)
Before signing
- Get the test introductions first (Mark's condition)
- Pricing: anchor near Wise for these clients rather than at 0.18–0.28%?
- Confirm we can offer collection accounts in the client's own name on day one
Owner: Mark, Paul, Marcus (deal), Tom R (onboarding) · Cash: £13k upfront
FY27 profit against the draft, by Outbound revenue a month (gross)
Data table
Each £10k a month changes FY27 profit by about £53k (×12 months × 0.96 × 46% kept after Nico's 48.5% and 5.5% affiliates).
If Nico leaves (model)
−£233k
Successor head, loaded
£62k
Each point of Nico's commission
£9.8k
Targets
- At least £85k a month gross from January, £100k by Q2
- Bridgeway trading monthly again by Q1
- Keep SAH AMBER/Driftwood: 61% of 2026 partner revenue
Decide
- Successor: insurance (a cost) or a revenue role (needs ~£135k)?
- Commission structure: when, if ever, to reopen it
Owner: Stevan, with Mark · Review: end of October
Now (filled) against the FY27 target (marker)
Data table
CT database: client-to-client referral revenue £27k (2021) → £215k (2023) → £494k (2025). Lapsed means revenue in 2024–25 and no trade in 2026: 1,648 clients worth £409k in 2025. In 2025 only 5% of that group came back on their own. KSA: 81% of 2024 clients traded again in 2025.
Profit if all targets are hit
+£119k
Extra referral budget
£12k
KPIs for Saul
- Client-referral revenue £494k → £590k (+£95k)
- Lapsed clients reactivated 5% → 15%, about 250 clients (+£40k)
- KSA year-on-year retention 81% → 85%
- Activity: referral asks and lapsed contacts each month
For onboarding (Sara H, Tom R)
- Days from signup to first trade: set a baseline in October
- Share of signups that make a first trade
- KSA rate test on lapsed clients: rates are the complaint
Owner: Saul · Budget: referral scheme £18k → £30k
FY27 profit by option (£k)
Data table
Salaried manager: £20–50k revenue (research estimate) at 70% kept after a 30% agent fee, against £60–90k loaded cost. The UAE hire (Mar–Jun 2026): pay £15.9k + recruitment £17.1k, against £644 of revenue from 3 trading clients; −£51k if the UAE visa, travel and laptop costs were his.
Gate before any hire
- 15 funded property clients through a commission-only introducer
- 2–3 escrow banks or developers confirm they'll accept our payments
- Target developers' UK sales offices and expos, not agents
Separate workstream
- AED collection for UAE residents and corporate set-up clients: Corpay, Nium, Hubpay (3–6 months)
- Revisit mid-2027
Owner: Stevan (opening doors, no target) · Paul (AED provider)
New UK corporate first traders a year
Data table
Targets
- 20 new UK corporate first traders in FY27: Wow 8, connectors 8, direct 4
- Each spend line names the result it's paid for
Decide
- Is Wow (£31k) this year's main new marketing bet?
- What does the contractor own: pipeline or content?
Owner: Ingrid, Tom R · Review: quarterly
R&D tax refund to plan on
£0
FY27 roadmap should serve
- Partner portal: referrals and earnings live, which is what "most partnerable" means in practice
- Xero feed, if it needs a build
- Callum in production; Spain IBAN flows
Decide
- Hold at £23k a month with named deliverables, or trim
- Don't count on R&D refunds: the work is overseas
Owner: Stevan, Ascent lead
Owner: Doug · Due: FY26 v4 by 15 Oct